If you asked me right now who will win this year's Oscar for best picture, I'd say NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN, with JUNO as the upset. My feelings could change but this is what I think is going to go down. This year's show will truly be one of the more unpredictable Oscar nights in recent memory.
I still find it hard to take the Academy seriously when movies like JUNO and ATONEMENT (and to a lesser extent MICHAEL CLAYTON) get best picture nominations over masterpieces like THE DIVING BELL & THE BUTTERFLY, ZODIAC, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD, and INTO THE WILD.
JUNO and ATONEMENT are both very good and very well made (especially ATONEMENT) but neither of them are in the top five for the year. MICHAEL CLAYTON is a film that I love (have seen it multiple times now) and I really admire first-time director Tony Gilroy for making such an elliptical, 70's-style, paranoid thriller and getting an absolutely first-rate, movie-star performance from George Clooney. I just don't think it's weighty enough for the big dance. However, having said all that, I'd smile if it were to shock the movie world and take the best picture trophy. Not gonna happen, but it'd be cool if it did.
However, if THERE WILL BE BLOOD somehow wins best picture (it won't; it's too strange, bold, and pessimistic to take best picture), I will jump for joy. Having seen the film now a few times, I'm convinced that it's a true work of art.