MY RESPONSE TO OSCAR

Overall I was pleased with the way the 2007 Oscar nominations panned out. While I don't ever agree in full with the Academy, they made some great picks this year. But in the end, I can't help but feel that they missed the boat on some of the truly exceptional films that were released last year. Here's a breakdown of what was nominated, who I feel will win, and who I think the nominees should have been (along with my personal picks):

BEST PICTURE

ATONEMENT
JUNO
MICHAEL CLAYTON
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Probable winner: JUNO
Upset: NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

Comments: Considering last year's best picutre winner (THE DEPARTED), I don't see the Academy giving their top award to another dark, violent picture (NO COUNTRY or THERE WILL BE BLOOD). JUNO is critically acclaimed, on a roll at the box office, and has become a true crowd-pleaser. However, it's also becoming a tad overrated and it will piss me off to no end if this film wins best picture. Don't get me wrong--I liked the film a lot. But there were 20 other films this year that were better. Same goes for ATONEMENT; another excellent, classy piece of filmmaking with Oscar pedigree all over it. But there were a slew of movies that exceeded its greatness. MICHAEL CLAYTON represents old-school Hollywood movie making; big name star (Clooney), smart filmmaker (Tony Gilroy), and important subject matter. And it was extremely entertaining. So I am not surprised that it's gotten the love that it has. But again, best picture material? I don't think so. I loved it but there were a handful of better films.

My personal picks:

THE DIVING BELL & THE BUTTERFLY
THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD
THERE WILL BE BLOOD
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
ZODIAC

My personal winner: THE DIVING BELL & THE BUTTERFLY


BEST DIRECTOR

Julian Schnabel, THE DIVING BELL & THE BUTTERFLY
Jason Reitman, JUNO
Tony Gilroy, MICHAEL CLAYTON
Joel & Ethan Coen, NO COUNTRY OLD MEN
Paul Thomas Anderson, THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Probable winner: Joel & Ethan Coen, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Upset: Julian Schnabel, THE DIVING BELL & THE BUTTERFLY

Comments: The Coen Brothers have been winning almost every best director award throughout the award season. If it hasn't been them, it's been Julian Schnabel winning. Reitman's nomination is a head scratcher to me -- over David Fincher (ZODIAC), Sean Penn (INTO THE WILD) or Andrew Dominik (THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES) or Sidney Lumet (BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU'RE DEAD) ?! JUNO is all about the script and the acting; sure, it's well directed and paced, but c'mon...I don't know...it feels like a minor effort compared to others. Paul Thomas Anderson got a well-deserved nomination for THERE WILL BE BLOOD; it's ambitious, unique filmmaking that challenges the audience. Gilroy did a smooth, solid job with MICHAEL CLAYTON (his directorial debut) but again, I question the nomination a bit. It'll be the Coens who take it; their film might not win best picture (and I hate it when the best picture and director awards don't link up...) but they've been nominated in the past and the film is virtually flawless.

My personal picks:

Julian Schnabel, THE DIVING BELL & THE BUTTERFLY
Andrew Dominik, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
Paul Thomas Anderson, THERE WILL BE BLOOD
Joel & Ethan Coen, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
David Fincher, ZODIAC

My personal winner: Julian Schnabel, THE DIVING BELL & THE BUTTERFLY


BEST ACTOR

George Clooney, MICHAEL CLAYTON
Daniel Day Lewis, THERE WILL BE BLOOD
Johnny Depp, SWEENEY TODD
Tommy Lee Jones, IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH
Viggo Mortensen, EASTERN PROMISES

Probable winner: Daniel Day Lewis, THERE WILL BE BLOOD
Upset: Johnny Depp, SWEENEY TODD

Comments: The big surprise of the category is Tommy Lee Jones for IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH, not that he wasn't amazing in it (he was), but that the film had completely flat-lined at the box office and seemed forgotten about as early as a month after its release. But combined with his terrific supporting turn in NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN, Jones couldn't be ignored. But there will be no stopping Daniel Day Lewis; his towering performance is being hailed as one of the finest of the decade. He's won pretty much every single best actor trophy throughout award season. I drink your milkshake! Clooney always exudes class and distinction and his work in MICHAEL CLAYTON might be the best of his career; Oscar will reward him down the line. Depp could upset; who knew the guy could sing too?! He was marvelous in SWEENEY TODD but the rivers of blood might make some Academy members squeamish. And Mortensen, who had probably the trickiest role out of the entire group, is in a mean, nasty, dark thriller that is still seen as too "genre" by most people. However, I'd argue that his in-the-nude fight scene, which upon repeated viewing has established itself as one of the finest movie fights of all time, is reason enough to give him the best actor statue. Mortensen is another actor who will be rewarded down the line, but not this year. It's Lewis all the way.

My personal picks:

Daniel Day Lews, THERE WILL BE BLOOD
Benicio Del Toro, THINGS WE LOST IN THE FIRE
Johnny Depp, SWEENEY TODD
Viggo Mortensen, EASTERN PROMISES
Gordon Pinset, AWAY FROM HER

My personal winner: Daniel Day Lewis, THERE WILL BE BLOOD


BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
Julie Christie, AWAY FROM HER
Marion Cotillard, LA VIE EN ROSE
Laura Linney, THE SAVAGES
Ellen Page, JUNO

Probable winner: Julie Christie, AWAY FROM HER
Upset: Marion Cotillard, LA VIE EN ROSE
Super-upset: Ellen Page, JUNO

Comments: I was thrilled to see Laura Linney got a nom for her work in THE SAVAGES; she's consistently great no matter what film she's in, but with THE SAVAGES, she delivered what's probably her best performance. Considering the terrible reviews/box office for ELIZABETH 2, I was shocked to see Blanchett getting a nom (especially considering her shoo-in nom in the supporting category for I'M NOT THERE). If you saw Ellen Page in 2006's HARD CANDY than you'd already know that she can bring it as an actress; her work in JUNO was also first-rate and wthout her snappiness, the film wouldn't work the way it does. Marion Cotillard delivered a bravura performance in LA VIE EN ROSE but I don't think it will be enough to beat Julie Christie, who's heartbreaking portrayal of a woman battling Alzheimer's disease in AWAY FROM HER was unforgettably tragic.

My personal picks:

Julie Christie, AWAY FROM HER
Laura Linney, THE SAVAGES
Amy Adams, ENCHANTED
Ellen Page, JUNO
Marion Cotillard, LA VIE EN ROSE

My personal winner: Laura Linney, THE SAVAGES


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Javier Bardem, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Casey Affleck, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD
Philip Seymour Hoffman, CHARLIE WILSON'S WAR
Hal Holbrook, INTO THE WILD
Tom Wilkinson, MICHAEL CLAYTON

Probable winner: Javier Bardem, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Upset: Hal Holbrook, INTO THE WILD

Comments: Javier Bardem's performance as Anton Chiguhr in NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN is one of the big-screen's most menacing villains. Ever. He's been on a roll during award season and his performance is the most critically acclaimed from the film. My money is on him. The sentimental favorite is Hal Holbrook, who at age 83, was given his first nomination for his tender work in INTO THE WILD. Casey Affleck totally disappeared into his role of Robert Ford in THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES but his character was so mysterious (not to mention despicable) that it will be hard for him to win the award. Phil Hoffman, who had an utterly amazing year giving three tour de force performances in BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU'RE DEAD, THE SAVAGES, and CHARLIE WILSON'S WAR, would win the award in any other year. He'll get his due soon enough. And Tom Wilkinson, who's performance in MICHAEL CLAYTON anchors the film in its morally murky waters, shouldn't be underestimated.

My personal picks:

Casey Affleck, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD
JAvier Bardem, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Hal Holbrook, INTO THE WILD
Philip Seymour Hoffman, BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU'RE DEAD
Mark Ruffalo, ZODIAC

My personal winner: Casey Affleck, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, I'M NOT THERE
Ruby Dee, AMERICAN GANGSTER
Saoirse Ronan, ATONEMENT
Amy Ryan, GONE BABY GONE
Tilda Swinton, MICHAEL CLAYTON

Probable winner: Amy Ryan, GONE BABY GONE
Upset: Cate Blanchett, I'M NOT THERE

Comments: Amy Ryan was riveting in GONE BABY GONE and she's won more awards than any other actor throughout award season; I will be shocked if she doesn't snag the Oscar. Blanchett, who won an supporting actress Oscar for her work as Katherine Hepburn in THE AVIATOR, was in deed amazing in I'M NOT THERE, but I don't see her winning again, especially considering she's playing another real life figure. Swinton, in any other year, might be the winner, as her work in MICHAEL CLAYTON deines the phrase "scene stealing." Ruby Dee is a sentimental pick (she's also 83 years old) and Saoirse Ronan doesn't have a chance at the gold but can go home knowing that she's one of the best young actresses in the business.

My personal picks:

Amy Ryan, GONE BABY GONE
Cate Blanchett, I'M NOT THERE
Saoirse Ronan, ATONEMENT
Emanuelle Seigner, THE DIVING BELL & THE BUTTERFLY
Tilda Swinton, MICHAEL CLAYTON

My personal winner: Amy Ryan, GONE BABY GONE


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Diablo Cody, JUNO
Nancy Oliver, LARS & THE REAL GIRL
Brad Bird, RATATOUILLE
Tony Gilroy, MICHAEL CLAYTON
Tamara Jenkins, THE SAVAGES

Probable winner: Diablo Cody, JUNO
Upset: Tony Gilroy, MICHAEL CLAYTON

Comments: I hated the screenplay to LARS & THE REAL GIRL so I am not pleased with its inclusion on this list. Diablo Cody has the award all wrapped up; she just has to show up and collect. Tony Gilroy, a long time writer (BOURNE 1-3, DEVIL'S ADVOCATE, PROOF OF LIFE), delivered a brainy, adult legal thriller that connects on a cerebral level. The pathos and dark humor of THE SAVAGES was startling so it's no surprise to see Tamara Jenkins on the list of nominees; I'd love to see her sneak out a win. Brad Bird did a wonderful job with RATATOUILLE but it's an animated film so it doesn't have a chance to win.

My personal picks:

Tamara Jenkins, THE SAVAGES
Diablo Cody, JUNO
Steven Knight, EASTERN PROMISES
Kelly Masterson, BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU'RE DEAD
Tony Gilroy, MICHAEL CLAYTON

My personal winner: Steven Knight, EASTERN PROMISES


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Christopher Hampton, ATONEMENT
Sarah Polley, AWAY FROM HER
Ronald Harwood, THE DIVING BELL & THE BUTTERFLY
Paul Thomas Anderson, THERE WILL BE BLOOD
Joel & Ethan Coen, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

Probable winner: Joel & Ethan Coen, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Upset: Paul Thomas Anderson, THERE WILL BE BLOOD

Comments: The Coen Brothers will more than likely snatch this one up too, but if there is an upset waiting in the wings, it goes to Paul Thomas Anderson. Ronald Harwood, a screenplay winner for his work on THE PIANIST, had an extremely tough book to adapt with THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY and the way that he crafted the screenplay was a thing of beauty. Christopher Hampton also had a tall oder in adapting ATONEMENT for the big screen and Sarah Polley expanded on a short story for her feature length script for AWAY FROM HER. This is an extremely competitive category; anything could happen.

My personal picks:

Joel & Ethan Coen, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Andrew Dominik, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
Ronald Harwood, THE DIVING BELL & THE BUTTERFLY
James Vanderbilt, ZODIAC
Paul Thomas Anderson, THERE WILL BE BLOOD

My personal winner: James Vanderbilt, ZODIAC


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Roger Deakins, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Roger Deakins, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
Robert Elswit, THERE WILL BE BLOOD
Seamus McGarvey, ATONEMENT
Janusz Kaminski, THE DIVING BELL & THE BUTTERFLY

Probable winner: Roger Deakins, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Upset: Janusz Kaminski, THE DIVING BELL & THE BUTTERFLY

Comments: Hands down the most competitive category this year. The work done by all of these guys is extraordinary; singling just one film out from this list just seems unfair. And that's not to mention all of the other amazing cinematographers who did exquisite, un-nominated work this year: Eric Gautier (INTO THE WILD), Harris Savides (AMERICAN GANGSTER and ZODIAC!), and Dariusz Wolski (SWEENEY TODD) just to name a few. But with multiple noms in the past, and two this year, it will be hard for Roger Deakins to lose; the question is what film will he win for? I'd bet on NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN but his artsy, unbelieveably controlled work in JESSE JAMES was the stuff of instant legend. Robert Elswit, who also shot MICHAEL CLAYTON as well as THERE WILL BE BLOOD, has been one of the best cinematographers in the business for at least a decade now. His time will come. Seamus McGarvey, who last shot WORLD TRADE CENTER before moving on to ATONEMENT, has to be considered a serious contender; that six minute tracking shot during ATONEMENT is already being studied by critics and scholars. And last but not least, watch out for Kaminski (he's won twice in the past for SAVING PRIVATE RYAN and SCHINDLER'S LIST), who took subjective camerawork to new heights in THE DIVING BELL & THE BUTTERFLY; pure art on display in that film.

My personal picks:

Roger Deakins, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES
Roger Deakins, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Janusz Kaminski, THE DIVING BELL & THE BUTTERFLY
Harris Savides, ZODIAC
Robert Elswit, THERE WILL BE BLOOD

My personal winner: Roger Deakins, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES