THE KINGDOM will be #1 I think, with roughly $21-24 million for the weekend. Could be a bit higher, could be a bit lower. Males are the target and while I think it will be a solid performer, I'm sensing a $60-70 million domestic haul with a likewise number overseas and then a great DVD turnout. Movies that depict the current war on terror and take place in Iraq and Afghanistan are going to be tricky sells to the movie going public. But considering THE KINGDOM is more of a straight ahead action picture I could see it coming in on the high end of expectations.
It will be followed closely by THE GAME PLAN, Disney's football/family movie with Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson. I am thinking $15-20 million for that. Or maybe less. The trailers are total shit and while it's a kid's movie and there haven't been many of late, I just dont think this one is gonna click all that well with audiences. We'll see....
Ensemble romantic drama FEAST OF LOVE, from renowned director Robert Benton, got mixed reviews and will probably preform modestly, though a dearth of movies like this may work to it's advantage. I am thinking $2-4 million from the 1,200 screens it's going out on.
IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH widens out in a few hundred more theaters but will be tough to generate a lot of box office excitement. For as much as I enjoyed and respected the film, I think it's too dour and low-key to make big box office waves.
Ang Lee's LUST, CAUTION, a two and a half hour, NC-17 WWII noir thriller opens on 1 screen in NYC, but will be going out wider in the weeks to come.
Wes Anderson's latest flick THE DARJEELING LIMITED, which just opened the New York Film Festival, will open theatrically on 2 screens in NYC this week, followed by a few more in major markets (LA, Chicago, etc) next week.
Expect drops of at least 50% (but probably more) for last weeks RESIDENT EVIL: EXTINCTION and GOOD LUCK CHUCK.
Sean Penn's phenomenal INTO THE WILD adds a few more screens and should continue to impress in the art house circuit. Ditto THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD.
TRANSFORMERS will continue to add to it's blockbuster box office cume over the next month or so with the IMAX engagements; I plan on catching that soon. A friend of mine caught it and said the IMAX treatment of Michael Bay's action-romp is simply staggering to behold.